Hi Nadine Carroll; Great article, but I disagree with him.
Re: "The problem with the Palestinians is not that they are hopeless and depressed. The problem is that they're not hopeless and depressed enough to stop the carnage and make peace. They still believe they're on the right track. And as long as they continue to feel this way, they will see no reason to stop the attacks or prevent them. If they see tangible results, they really will have no reason to stop the attacks or prevent them."
In this, I agree completely 100%. But his expectation that Israel can make the Palestinians depressed is incorrect.
At first glance, war is about attrition. But there is also an art to it, and that art is largely about "tactics". The primary tactic in war is called "ambush". (The only venue I can think of, where ambush is not the primary tactic, is naval warfare.) Putting 450 Israeli settlers into a town of 100,000 hostile Palestinians is a way of inviting the other side to ambush you.
Every 13-year old boy who plays real time strategy games understands this principle, and, in the event that they play against someone who chooses Imshin's strategy, will kick his ass. For example:
4.1.2 Combat Tactics
The computer doesn't know to retreat when up against superior forces, and will always fight to the death. Use this to force the computer into committing forces to battles it can not possibly win.
game-revolution.com
Imshin's tactics are not military tactics. They are psychological tactics. Psychological tactics sometimes work, but his analysis in this case is flawed by the fact that successful Palestinian ambushes raise Palestinian morale more than the resulting reprisals depresses it. It feels good to win, and by keeping the settlers in places where they are easily defeated, Palestinian morale is improved. Defeating the enemy feels good, not bad.
-- Carl |
