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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 683.83+0.3%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38423)11/20/2002 12:04:20 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) of 68581
 
madtrader]
Wed Nov 20, 6:45am PST T2108
T2107
I was going through these two TC2000 indicators last night (T2108 is the % of stocks above 40 DMA, T2107 is % stocks above 200 DMA), and found something very interesting. A lot of people are comparing this rally we have had since early October to that of last years. If you look at the duration, magnitude of the major indices, it certainly seems correct. However, the internals are very different this time around if you look at where stock prices are relative to their long term trends. Which may offer some clues as to how far and how long this can go on. Around this time last year, T2108 has already moved back to the 60% range, so did T2107. Which suggests that most of the stocks are back above their intermediate and long term trendlines. The indicators went on to peak out around 70% after the new year. This time around, we have seen T2108 (% above 40 DMA) has already made it's way back above 60%, yet T2107 is still stuck way down around 21% range, hardly much higher than it's October low reading of 13%. This can only mean one thing, that this at this stage of the game, the broad market is much more damaged than it was a year ago. The most recent comparison for this kind of divergence between T2108 and T2107 is perhaps that of October 1998 lows. none.
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