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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: zonder who wrote (57931)	11/20/2002 12:22:34 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Turks clearly do not support the US in its intended invasion of Iraq but could go the way of surfing the wave for profits. What will probably happen is that if the US wants to use Turkish bases, they will push the EU hard for Turkey's membership talks AND pay good money for "compensations". So Turkey is trying to cut the best deal for itself? Oh my, what a shock. As for the anti-war pronouncements, once again I spy some airspace between public pronouncements and private opinions. I can well understand that the prospect of a US invasion of Iraq worries Turkey very deeply. But on the other hand, the Turks are not fools, and the prospect of containment breaking down altogether, leaving them with a nuclear-armed Iraq on their southern border, must not fill them with joy either. They may comfort themselves that the Kurds will take the brunt of the punishment, and that Saddam wouldn't dare to invade them directly, but who can feel comfortable about the calculations Saddam might make once he had nukes? Iran was four times the size of Iraq, and he invaded them anyway.

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