Well, historically the VIX has a lot farther to fall before Bulls go to the slaughterhouse, doesn't it?
Don't get me wrong. I find the idea of a breakout here unlikely and ultimately bearish. However, we've had selloffs on low volume, none of which have had staying power. We've had indices like the SOX showing strength, and the banks bouncing perfectly off a 50 dma. Now we have the naz with no real resistance til 1425, and that's resistance that is already either a double or triple top, and unlikely to hold an advance in check. In other words, there's a lot of bullish things, and the SI bears have denied them most of the way up and continue, imo, to be complacent. While I think the bearish view will ultimately prove right (and maybe sooner rather than later), I remain surprised by the disregard of any bullish case here.
the freep |
