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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (53083)	11/20/2002 4:33:09 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) of 54805

People eventually aren't going to be satisfied with having to wander into a WiFi-enabled area to access the Net. I think you are under-estimating WiFi. Whether it's on their cell phone, their laptop, their desktop, their PDA or the console of their automobile, they'll want access to the Net and won't want to have to depend on WiFi. My conclusion is that neither WiFi nor CDMA is sufficient for this level of ubiquity. Eventually, spread spectrum technologies will be the likely pervasive wireless technology. However, there is a long and healthy market to be won between now and then. What has WiFi won? I live in a major metropolitan area and can't tell you of one place within ten miles of my home that I know is WiFi-enabled. A large customer base. WiFi will be the enterprise wireless standard so people will have devices that are WiFi enabled at work. WiFi is the home wireless standard and people will have WiFi enabled devices at home. Network effects take over from there. Review the coverage of Comdex this week. Compare the number of new WiFi enable devices announced to the number of CDMA enable devices announced. It will take time but the sheer number of WiFi enabled devices will cause a great expansion in the coverage of WiFi networks. WiFi is a sustainng technology for the PC and handheld market. There will be very little in the way on brand new applications. Already we are seeing new types of cell phone and mobile applications developing which is my I see so much life in the CDMA world now. The FCC is also making it's first tentative steps towards opening up spectrum. If spectrum becomes less scarce some of the economic benefits of CDMA are less relevant. It is too early to factor this into the CDMA game but a trend to watch. Ultimately a pervasive Ethernet-like spread spectrum technology is my bet but that wont happen this decade. BTW, you could read my position as "Regardless of the outcome for the heavy lifting data applications battle" QCOM is an outstanding opportunity. Paul

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