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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (60042)	11/21/2002 1:11:16 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 209892

That low IIA bears reading is impressive. Let's all remember, though - lack of bearish sentiment (bullish consensus) is a necessary but not sufficient ingredient in a top. That said, I can tell one thing for sure - this tells you with very little doubt that a durable bottom has not yet been constructed. No new bull has ever been launched with this kind of immediate conversion to bullish consensus. New bulls launch amid widespread doubt and disbelief. Even minor cyclical launches have come from months of bearish consensus. I believe this bottom will come from probably years of bearish consensus before all is said and done. I will continue to maintain my long term short exposure at a minimum of 25% of assets until I see at least a few of the items necessary to produce a lasting bottom. BC

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