The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (6999)	11/21/2002 5:54:39 PM
From: get shorty	Read Replies (3) of 306849

Elroy and others; I'd like to get your thoughts on an article I read the other day. The general theme of the article questioned whether or not residential RE was due for a correction. The author suggested that to try and "time" the RE market was foolhardy. Specifically, that folks looking to sell now, with the intent of renting during a potential downturn, were most likely making a mistake. The article basically espoused the same buy and hold philosophy that's usually associated with equities. One of the main premises of the article was that; even if you're clever enough to sell at the top, and buy back at the bottom, you'd need to see a decline in housing prices of 20%, just to cover transaction costs. Does that sound accurate? I thought I was familiar with most of the costs associated with the buying/selling of a home. I can't come close to coming up with 20% in transaction costs. I own a home in the hell that is Silicon Valley. I've been thinking very hard about selling. Alas, I have already missed the peak.

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