OK, against my better judgement i'm gonna go out on a serious limb here and call the top.
(i) read this board on Aug 21/22. read it yesterday/today. change the dates (and a couple of the names; where are you AA) and you'd never know the difference.
(ii) trash flying. ACF, Western Wireless, Qwest, American Tower, Commerce One, CMGI, you name it it is moving. on all previous bear market rallies this has been a good sign of a top.
(iii) SOX is done. since the bear started, there have been three previous episodes where the SOX has had a cluster of 7%+ up days like it has had recently. these clusters are then followed by a lull, a couple of more big days like yesterday/today, and then down.
(iv) credit spreads are not appreciably narrowing, despite large equity market rally. remember, the BOND guys are the smart money; there is NO smart money in the equity market, bull or bear.
i took off a few hedges today and went after WWCA and ELX. more Ford is on the docket for tomorrow.
hope everybody is well.
Cheers |
