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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion

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To: Bernie Goldberg who wrote (2542)	11/22/2002 8:23:34 AM
From: Paul M. Rengier	Read Replies (1) of 2574

Bernie, just to get the facts correct: my target was around 8.50, while the target value of vectorvest was a surprising 7.50 (both figures not exact). I never had a price target of 5. In TA you come out with a figure, that sometimes depends on the thickness of your pencil. So allow a little leeway. If APCC hits 17 it does not constitute that TA is wrong at all or that I am a moron. Keep in mind, that technical analysis is no glass sphere, but works a little bit like voodoo. Those who believe in it (and they are many) make it happen like selling the stock when it hits a resistance or buying a breakout. At least TA can explain in hindsight, why a stock has gone where it has gone. David is correct: the company itself produces the best UPS of the world, is the world leader in his arena and has a world class management. But the market is in no way recovering. So, who is going to buy these UPS? Cost cutting and buying back stock (as IBM does) keeps a P/E low, but is in no way a solution of the problems, the whole industry faces. To repeat myself: This is not a market of sustainable high P/Es. The verdict over the stock (and probably the majority of stocks) remains: OVERVALUED rgds Paul

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