P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (16508)	11/22/2002 10:04:45 AM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) of 30712

AJTJ: let me answer you by expanding my comments: (1) Look at this equity P/C ratio chart for 2002: schaeffersresearch.com You can see how every major rally (Sep01-Jan02, Feb-Mar02, Jul-Aug02, also true for the 2000 and 2001 rallies) always ends with equity P/C ratio no higher than .60 ... we're still at .636. (2) Now look at this: quote.cboe.com OI QQQ puts: 232K at 24, 148K at 25, 163K at 26. How is QQQ going to drop below 26 with these walls of puts? MaxPain is at 25-26 quickly moving toward 26. (3) Also look at this: stockcharts.com[r,a]wacaynay[df][pd20,2!f]&pref=G When was the last time we topped out at VIX 27+ ? VIX hit 23 or lower on every major 2000-2001 rally. Now, VXN and Advisors sentiment look more bullish ... but I still don't see extraordinary bullishness one would expect at the top of a major rally. This rally may or may not be over but underlying residual bearishness/caution is likely to restrict downside moves. Your thoughts?

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