E-waving is dead. There is no count for this move. No Elliottician knows. None of them are even claiming to know. -g
Let it go by as best you can. The hares have run amok and are doing well. The turtle knows it's about capital preservation in a long bear market.
We've done a double. It's worth repeating -- we've done a double. LOL. That's gotta hurt. Look at December puts on QQQ. That's some non-trivial disbelief. Let it go by.
I think the 27th will be a good short. Still, we'll want to bounce at 1420. It will not fall on the first go-round. Sure, it might probe below, hell, there will be 28 messages on this thread wondering whether it's a probe or a break, but it will bounce from that test. It will take some time.
Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Four things that are worlds on their own. Still, they do not matter to me in the wide timeframes. "It's the debt stupid" -- that's pretty well all that matters to me.
Look at that Nikkei rally after the first deep low. Years of directionless speculation to the upside and and disappointment to the downside. That stuff is incredibly hard to trade I think. Still, in the end, after years of it, we resumed the trend.
It'll be this way with the credit excess we have yet to work-off. There is nowhere for it to go. I have not heard even a mildly cogent argument for how we can climb out of it. I know we will not.
In between, we'll get violence to the upside and posts about a new bull. Let it go by.
What the fuck do I know?
Cheers, Allan |
