Aj -- I don't have a clue what's gonna happen, but I have a question for ya: <<The SPX has rallied between 21.6% and 24.5% in the major rallies in this bear. No more.>.
Why do you think that is? And why do you think it is likely to stay the same with this rally? It seems to me that the one thing the market does exceedingly well is ruin patterns once folks like you and I find them <g>. I do agree a turn down from that 950-960 S+P level makes sense, but in looking back to, say, the 1929-32 period, there were rallies of more than 24% there, so I again wonder why you think all the rallies in this bear will fall into the same range.
FWIW, my next important turn time is somewhere in the Dec 19-24 range (which includes a weekend, so cut me some slack!). I had thought it was gonna be a low, and I suppose it still could be. But right now, I think it's gonna mark the top for some period. I wonder if this end Nov-end Dec won't mimic last early dec-Jan in the "top, meander, final top" sense?
Also FWIW, the commercials added to longs on the S+P and NDX this week.
the freep |
