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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (7067)11/24/2002 12:36:04 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95531
 
I think the key to the report is how finely tuned TSMC is to changes in chip demand. If the market starts believing some "real thing" scenario, it will be time to use price rises for profit taking.

There is NO "real thing" waiting, coiled for explosive lift-off. There are only careful, deliberate additions for advanced technology and for increasing production of advanced products. On the flip side, the recent slowdown is just the reaction to big percentage jumps in orders in the first half of 2002 which were, perhaps, too big. There will be another round of big percentage jumps in 2003 despite current anemic capital spending plans. Capital spending plans have 1 month to 1 quarter visibility. With advanced production at 93%, any increased end user demand will require capital expenditure.
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