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Strategies & Market Trends : AL is Not a Human Being

QQQ 629.07

+0.5%

Oct 31 5:00 PM EST

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject	11/25/2002 3:58:05 AM
From: Psycho-Social	of 793

Profit/Loss Taking: During the past month I've gradually reduced my equity allocation from about 60% to about 33%. Although my indicators haven't fully coalesced into a strong sell signal yet, risk vs reward is gradually getting less favorable. If we can get some more upbeat rhetoric re the near term business outlook and continue the recent positive momentum, I may go to 100% cash within the next week or so. My "Fear Factor" indicator, developed almost six months ago, is proving itself valuable. Strangely enough, the pattern that's emerge is not a strictly contrarian one: When Terrorism news hits its max, the Market doesnt hit its low immediately, but 3-5 wks later. Since we had a high in the Fear Factor indicator just over 3 wks ago (meaning that terrorism related news was at its lowest ebb), we could be getting within a week or so of the peak of this rally from the October 10th low.

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