Hi, Phoenix...just spent some time cruising your past postings...so will make my following comments based upon those observations in an attempt to contribute to your request for responses
#1...The two primary indices are HUI and XAU...both have major statistical flaws.
A) HUI...is called the index where the "non-hedging producers" hang out.
Just two problems and if you can figure a way to E-Wave quantify either so as to not constantly encounter statistical anomaly in your E-Wave interps...you're a better man than most!
Problem A.1: By Exchange definition: HUI listeds are restricted to companies who do not hedge beyond TWO years forward. That isn't exactly my definition of a "non-hedger."
Problem A.2: There is no review teeth I've ever been able to find for either review nor enforcement of that "TWO be or not TWO be" differentiation between it and XAU participants.
#2
B) XAU. That index has the darndest insert-remove willy nilly line-up change ever observed in my 20 some years of playing the gold markets, both from the physical side as well as an index options player, etc. As such, all internal relevance to past trading bands, hi-lo, et al is worse than trying to make jelly-fish stand at attention for a military review.
That leaves us players with a couple or 3 choices.
---Our primo tracking mutual fund was polluted about 3 years ago, so that one is now out.
---Some of us have shifted to the Rydex Gold Fund and switch in and out of there.
Probably the primo rRydex switcher I know who is good at it and makes public calls on a 900# twice daily is old wiley Ken Gammage of Richland Report, La Jolla CA. If you can't find him, gimme a shout via PM...I'll give you his private phone number...
---The third choice some of us select is to play the 900 pound gorilla in the XAU space, namely ABX. For reasons known only to those who have watched paper gold carry trade monopolize gold equities companies, ABX has a love/hate relationship with SI'ers for the most part. I'm neither a lover nor a hater...just want it to move so I can play the options.
While he's not as vocal as he's been in the past, and god knows I've abandoned the SI-XAU thread many moons ago, I notice an old bugger by the name of Jim McMannis has returned to the gold playing arena for the first time in several years. Mostly he's been a recluse and hiding on AMD thread during the latest multi-year gold bear.
His tech skills, proprietary algorithms, leading indicators in short/intermediate/long term interest rate models in particular...and I mean GLOBAL interest rate tracking, has earned him some spectacular calls, and far too often and accurate to be dismissed as "lucky." And, his all-around nimbleness have made him quite the gold sector player who has my respect for the most part. He trades for a living, if you call being stuck in Florida "living"<g>
You might want to pick his brain now that he has returned to devining gold's entrails again, albeit it ever so quietly. He'll talk to you. Tell him I sent ya<g>
If you want tops in regression analysis...strick up acquaintance with Dr. Searle and Guree Tom on the Dutch central bank thread. Doc is in So. Africa and is quite the TA'er. Tom has a love affair with a 9 wave count theory application to XAU and has proven his ken in that regard.
Even the Aden sisters have returned to this sector which is akin to robins as harbingers of spring--they just don't post on SI <g>
One last thought...the only thing that is so beautiful about playing XAU --albeit with problem mentioned about re: relativity to past internal measurements is this: XAU has so many players, that we all swing from the same tree. And we all can make money, as it's cyclicality is legendary... and there is a 15 minute time lag in favor of the nimble trader for establishing an opening trade based upon gold's move and the move of the major components.
Yes, it is still there, even after all these years, and all the PDA's and computer driven modelling...it seems our XAU specialist is also a floor specialist in the primary players in NY...and he simply can't be two places at once, thus the lag in window to catch an XAU move.
The best cyclical player of XAU is not Tom nor Jim, nor even Doc...it is a Hearst System player named Dave, who has a rather expensive newsletter. But Hearst setups are legendary. A second fiddle Hearst student is around as well, but not as good as Dave. You might want to visit with Ken Gammage about XAU...he's a Hearst market tracker...it's part of his stellar success with Rydex Gold switching all these years.
Welcome to our corner of heaven..
gold & platinum_Tutor |
