hi qveau,
We have hugely outperformed the indices
i think it depends what index one chooses, and also the time frame. for example, if QCOM is considered a wireless stock, then one could compare it to a wireless index. WMH is the symbol for the wireless HOLDRs index, in which QCOM has about a 13.4% weighting. while QCOM has outperformed WMH over the 3-month chart you showed, it has underpformed over the past month quicken.com
but even looking at the 3-month chart, where QCOM has outperformed, you can see that they have similar movement over a good part of the chart quicken.com
QCOM may also be considered in part a semiconductor company, and so one might compare it to the semiconductor HOLDRs as well (symbol SMH). SMH has significantly outperformed QCOM over the past month quicken.com
however, QCOM has outperformed SMH over 3 months. prior to September, QCOM actually underperformed SMH on a YTD basis (and i had great fun shorting SMH on the way down).
and on a 1-yr chart, WMH, SMH and QCOM are pretty close to each other. quicken.com
all in all, i believe one can make just about any case based on short-term chart movements by selecting the appropriate time frame and contrasting stocks for comparison. this is why i don't put too much stock in these charts.
i continue to believe value will win over the long term, so i think it still comes down to whether the intrinsic value is there or not. maybe John and i are wrong, and QCOM is really worth $100 a share. if so, i would suspect that this value will become apparent in the share price over time.
on the other hand, maybe the bears are right and QCOM is worth some amount less than $20 a share. if so, i expect the market will eventually reflect that.
in the meantime, i consider the price fluctuations to be just more market noise.
best, |
