NOVEMBER 25, 2002
WASHINGTON WATCH
By Richard S. Dunham
The Once and Future Gore
History reveals some interesting parallels between the 2000 Democratic Presidential nominee and other, star-crossed contenders
Richard Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau
He's ba-a-a-a-ck! Al Gore, the ghost of Presidential elections past, has become the hit of the 2002 holiday season. He's all over TV -- talking to Barbara Walters, Larry King, and Katie Couric about his painful loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 race. Even David Letterman, the king of late-night comedy and a guest lecturer at one of Gore's classes at Columbia University, hosted the once and future Democratic White House hopeful.
I'll leave the prognostication to my fellow pundits, who seem to be enjoying kicking the man while he's down. The Pundit Elite already seems to have declared that President Bush will trounce Gore -- or any other sacrificial lamb the Democrats choose to nominate. That may prove true, but such analysis is ridiculously premature. Remember that other President Bush 12 years ago, after his decisive victory in the Persian Gulf War, and all those predictions of an easy reelection victory?
To coin an old phrase, two years is a mighty long time, especially in politics. Two years ago, Martha Stewart was a respected celebrity CEO and Attorney General John Ashcroft was a laughingstock, having just lost his reelection contest to a dead man.
I'd rather take a look at Gore's future path through the lens of history. What does the past tell us about Gore's possible political fate now, especially if he throws his hat into the 2004 race? Here are a few precedents the man from Tennessee (and Washington, D.C.) should study before signing up for a rematch with Bush:
The Tilden Model. Like Gore, Samuel Jones Tilden received more votes than his 1876 Republican opponent, Rutherford B. Hayes, but he lost in the Electoral College by one vote after disputed electoral votes in Florida (and South Carolina, Louisiana, and Oregon) were awarded to Hayes. Tilden's response? As governor of New York, he accepted the outcome, served out his Empire State term, and never ran for public office again. Tilden declined entreaties by fellow Democrats to seek the Presidency in 1880 and died six years later.
Because of Tilden's grace and equanimity -- and the unusually slimy politicking that resulted in Hayes's victory -- historians have come to view the 1876 loser as an aggrieved figure and "the man who should have been President." Gore seems to wants the Presidency too much to follow Tilden's course, but he must be thinking about the judgment of future generations of historians.
The Cleveland Model. Democratic President Grover Cleveland outpolled Republican Benjamin Harrison in 1888, but narrowly lost in the Electoral College. Four years later, Cleveland ran an aggressive campaign against the man who had unseated him -- and won an undisputed victory. The bad news: Cleveland subsequently presided over the worst depression in the Republic's history to that point. It was 20 years before another Democrat was elected President.
The Bryan Model. This is the "Populist Al" scenario. Democrat William Jennings Bryan, the Boy Orator of the Platte, rallied his party in a populist crusade against the powerful, moneyed interests in 1896. But Bryan was beaten by Ohio Governor William McKinley, whose campaign was bankrolled by corporate interests and wealthy industrialists. Sound familiar? Well, it's the favorite election of White House political guru Karl Rove, who studied it intently in the run up to the 2000 contest.
Bryan, the champion of the common man and "free silver," kept trying for the gold ring, but his fiery populist message got old -- and shrill. He lost badly in 1900. He lost by an even wider margin in 1908. His dreams of becoming President were never realized. He's best-known by modern students for demonizing Darwin in the Scopes Monkey Trial, just down the road from Al Gore's home in Tennessee.
The Adams Family Model. In 1824, John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts, the son of former President John Adams, was installed as President by partisans in Washington after losing the popular vote to Democrat Andrew Jackson of Tennessee. Four years later, General Jackson, a cantankerous populist nicknamed Old Hickory, finally vanquished the Adamses. Indeed, Adams père et fils both were booted from office after one term. With the current President's father, George H.W. Bush, a reelection loser in 1992, Gore is hoping to do the same to George W. in 2004 -- pulling off a Tennessee two-fer.
The Nixon Model. In 1960, Richard M. Nixon narrowly lost to John F. Kennedy a Presidential election that most political observers thought he should have won. Blame it on the debates. Blame it on his personality, but Nixon lost. Like Gore, Nixon thought the election was stolen. Tricky Dick blamed Joe Kennedy, his foe's dad, and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, for rigging the vote count. Fightin' Al blamed Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris for not performing a full and fair recount of the Florida tally. (Ironically, Dick Daley's son Bill was Gore's campaign chairman.)
Nixon, after losing a race for California governor in 1962, decided to sit out a rematch and instead collected chits by raising money for Republican candidates all over the country in '64 and '66. Then in 1968, a "New Nixon" emerged and, in the midst of the Vietnam War and race riots, won the closest popular-vote majority in modern times.
What do I think? Gore would probably benefit from running in the wide-open 2008 cycle, rather than facing an incumbent in two years. But from all indications, the ex-Veep has made up his mind to challenge Bush. Whatever he does, history seems sure to repeat itself -- no matter how you slice it.
Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Follow his views every Monday in Washington Watch, only on BusinessWeek Online
Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
Copyright 2002, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy |
