Why cap it there? Why stop at the 200? Why not shoot for
the 250, i.e., the 50 week SMA? After all, we pierced it
twice on a weekly basis back in December/January. In fact,
if you want just a tag and reverse, then to match up with
January we have to shoot for the 60 week (300 day) SMA.
I know everybody thinks I'm nuts. Heck, if I wasn't
before, I sure as HE!! will be by the time Da Boyz finish
reaming my rear end. But still, what's to say they
can't/won't just keep running this thing until the end of
the year? Remember, all the chit we look at that tells us
this thing should crash any second now is based on "what
usually happens."
But, this is only the fourth (or is it the third?) big
bear market rally in the biggest bear in history. Who the
fark can say what is "usual" for such things? A
statistician would say we were all farking out of our
minds for trying to project based on such small numbers.
Aside from that, "usually" does NOT mean "must!" So, even
if this were the fiftieth bear market rally in the
fiftieth huge but similar bear market, there would be no
reason that what "usually" happened in the past would
necessarily happen now.
In fact, maybe Jeff had the whole thing wrong from the
very beginning. If we could travel forward in time a
thousand years and then look back in history, perhaps what
we would find is that after any bubble the size of the one
we have had, the "usual" thing to follow it is not a 1929
scenario at all. Maybe the Nikkei chart is the one we
should have been looking at all along?!
If, (and it's a HUGE if, obviously), my rantings above are
correct, then I think I have a new name for this thread.
It should be called:
WELCOME TO THE KILLING FIELDS. WE ARE ALL TOAST.
stockcharts.com[r,a]waclyiay[pb10!b20!d20,2!b30!b40!b50!b60][vc60][iub14!up13,8,3!le13,21,8!lg13][j8242690,y]&listNum=4 |
