Thanks Eric.
I started to look at revenue projections for Qualcomm based on increasing CDMA penetration globally. My thinking was to trend subscriber growth rate into revenue growth rate to get an idea of anticipated top-line revenue by year.
I am not yet finished with the analysis, but the data does not support a supposition that Qualcomm revenues do not correlate with CDMA subscriber growth!
Here's a glance at a subset of the numbers with data from the 10Q reports filed 7/02, 7/01 and 7/00:
Period CDMA Subs Revenue
Subs Total QCT QTL
Jun 99 33,621 1,004,066 318,324 126,019
Dec 99 50,100 1,120,073 325,395 177,545
Jun 00 65,925 713,521 333,274 170,083
Dec 00 80,440 655,202 330,632 186,824
Jun 01 96,313 656,598 333,115 180,129
Dec 01 111,331 698,642 359,144 210,803
Jun 02 127,150 770,917 404,253 198,853
In a period where CDMA subscribers grew almost four-fold (3.8x), Total revenue has been fairly flat as business activities come and go, while segment revenue from QCT has increased by about 28% and that from QTL has increased by about 57%. These growth rates over 3 years amount to 8% and 16% respectively, which are paltry when compared to a CDMA growth rate of 56% over the same period.
I suspect numbers are more in line with overall digital wireless subscriber growth than with CDMA subscriber growth.
Any theories why this should be so? More important, what do these theories imply about the future?
John |
