From a sociological and subjective perspective of the markets as a whole, I would feel MUCH more comfortable jumping in sometime in January. I still believe that there are more shoes to drop between now and then, which may upset this house of cards and direct the markets toward a new test of the low. I think we will top out either this Holidility Friday Feast Day or, if no "spectacular attacks" against Christmas shoppers just after Thanksgiving, then by Thursday, December 5, 2002. This is historically the week when fund-managers begin shuffling big lots and making big deals to find the "right" homes for their funds for the coming (2003) calendar year.
However, I believe the next low mark will be the final one. . . at least for a long time. I think it will come shortly after the new year, probably during the first two weeks of January (though it could come later, if war is postponed). . . AHEAD of the start of war. Once those who jumped back into the markets with both feet are stunned by the sudden dump and the rest of the country is too scared or worried to invest and volume all but dries up. . . and fear stretches across our land, due to a string of sour news from numerous sources (business, political, etc.), and mixed with growing rumors of war and alliances . . . and as we are literally days away from all out war with Iraq. . . or quite possibly a sort of World War against some sort of "alliance of Arab nations". . . in our darkest hour. . . it is at that point, when I believe we will experience the elusive MOABO so many have talked about for so long a time now.
Best wishes,
Rande Is |
