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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.28-1.0%Dec 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (7109)11/26/2002 11:13:44 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) of 95525
 
Yes, I do feel the semi equipment group is overvalued, especially in light of their uncertain medium term future. Still, it is not a sector I know well, and thought it was a good idea to ask about it in this thread.

The outlook is poor but as the INTC upgrade points out today there may be some hope for improving fundamentals. If INTC makes more money they could raise their cap ex.

Yes but when? It does not fill me with optimism, to be perfectly honest, that Intel is raising prices, especially a month after it announced a decline in semi equipment investments.

Or do you think we have already topped out on this rally and why?

This looks like a bear rally to me. I could of course be wrong and will no doubt jump in if it goes on much longer. However, I will not be jumping in buying a stock that is already in triple-digit P/E range, with uncertain outlook. I will buy ERTS and TTWO that are half as expensive and are having a ball in 2002 and most probably 2003.

From a fundamental point of view, I am not very positive on the US market and prefer standing on the sidelines for the time being, albeit with some short action. I don't know if you read Fed Governor Hernanke's (or whatever his name is) speech the other day but my eyes popped out a la Mask at his repeated mention of printing money and devaluation of the USD.

Got gold?
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