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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: advocatedevil who wrote (7163)	11/26/2002 8:13:56 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95525

Yesterday's Briefing.com Summary - Updated: 26-Nov-02 - General Commentary - For the past few weeks, Briefing.com has argued that while improving technicals and favorable seasonals were apt to underpin the sector over the short-term (with a maximum price target of 1480-1500 in the Nasdaq), until the earnings picture improves it will be difficult for the sector to climb much higher. Ultimately, earnings drive the sector/market and unless one tech company after another starts to deliver material upside surprises to consensus estimates the earnings power just isn't there to sustain the advance. The table below illustrates our point. Stock Price Next FY Estimated Earnings Estimated P/E Dell (DELL) 28.67 $0.99 29x Microsoft (MSFT) 58.23 $2.15 27.1x Intel (INTC) 20.48 $0.61 33.6x IBM (IBM) 86.20 $4.31 20x Nokia (NOK) 19.14 $0.83 23.1x Motorola (MOT) 10.52 $0.38 27.7x Texas InstTXN) 19.52 $0.28 69.7x Cisco (CSCO) 14.89 $0.61 24.4x Appl Matls (AMAT) 17.03 $0.50 34.1x KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 44.14 $1.09 40.5x Adv Micro (AMD) 7.95 ($0.92) n/a Sun Micro (SUNW) 3.80 $0.11 34.5x Hew-Pacd (HPQ) 19.29 $1.46 13.2x Broadcom (BRCM) 20 $0.18 111.1x Qualcom (QCOM) 41.90 $1.36 30.8x QLogic (QLGC) 44.07 $1.26 35x Oracle (ORCL) 11.91 $0.44 27.1x eBay (EBAY) 69 $1.16 59.5x Veritas (VRTS) 20.05 $0.60 33.4x Verizon (VZ) 41 $2.96 13.9x The average forward p/e (based not on the estimates for the current fiscal year, but next year) is 34.4x. Obviously not the obscene multiple of the bubble era, but certainly not cheap. Considering the lingering questions about the durability and strength of the economic recovery, and ongoing uncertainties tied to the ongoing war on terror, this seems a pretty rich price to pay for a group with little to no earnings visibility. Robert Walberg We hit 1478 as a high today. Almost 1487 yesterday. chart.yahoo.com Tonight's NVLS update was well received in after hours action but I was surprised that they did not have a better idea how much impact SFAM would have on the bottom line from a simple math standpoint. RtS

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