Re >>I would be genuinely interested to read your take on why tech stocks were so uniformly down all day yesterday
Dunno. Profit taking, perhaps? I wasn't involved in any tech badmouthing, that's all I can say.
>>And the reference that I posted re a fake story about an internal Novellus memo projecting reduced rev next year
I did not see that one until I read your post this morning. It seems to be a rumour.
>>If you think you are a good judge of valuation and stock price, why couldn't you foresee Novellus price rise from 20 to 36 ?
Yes, I think I am a good judge of valuation and stock price. So do my employers apparently, for they pay me for it.
Am I always right and can I always foresee price increases and declines for every stock group? No. Do I have to be? Again, no. I just have to be right more often than wrong.
No, I did not catch the price increase in NVLS from $20 to $36 but I was not caught in it down from $55 to $20, either. Now that it is back up at $36, while there seems little positive news and the stock is at 3-digit P/E territory, I notice a shorting opportunity, that's all.
>>And if you couldn't foresee that increase, why do you think you can foresee a decline from 36?
It does't work that way, Sarmad. We do not have crystal balls, nor do we have prescient dreams. We do not have to catch every single upward move, and our missing a couple of such is no indicator that we are unfit to manage funds.
To each his own, but if I am positive on an industry, and especially its leaders, I look at declines in price as buying opportunities. Quite the reverse for sectors I am negative on. Seen in this light, I hope you understand how I was not on the wagon from $20 to $36 for NVLS but might very well be down from $36.
>>Have a great day, and I sincerely apologize if I have been rude to you.
You, too, and no problem. |
