OT TA stuff:
Ditch:
You woulda never found me at SD2, only HTP and BBR. SD2 is very exclusive (to the tune of maybe 50 people; Frank's not divulging). I'm still holding onto my EDS--it's sitting on good support at the 17.50 range, and there's a huge gap to fill to the upside (waaaaaay up there at 30-32-ish). As I noted before (or maybe not), it's a classic technical chart. If I had been more patient I coulda bought (looking at the daily sticks) at the lighter volume 2nd test around $11.50 or so. Oh well. It's got the blowoff bottom on the 2nd gap down ('get me outta dis stock, at any price!!), then the retest and then a base (cup), rally and slight retrace on solid volume (handle) and now the breakout. I see support here at 17.50, and no overhead resistance until 30-32:
stockcharts.com
On SOSA (only doing TA here, but you can find the FA story on BBR, I'm sure, if you ask there--generally the offshore service/construction guys are not prospering here and SOSA's earnings reflect that--prospects are not good short and medium term, either, unlike the dry land drillers):
stockcharts.com
If I wanted to own this name, I'd put in a GTC order to buy it at $1.17 and forget about it, even though it could trade higher for a few days (today's bullish harami is forming and volume is generally good). What I think will happen, if this is bottoming on this 2 month pattern, is it should sell off, maybe for taxes and retrace most of the way to the $1.05 low. I've noticed on many of these retraces that the 2nd bottom is not quite so deep, has much less volume (a mopping up exercise) and tends to be more rounded/flatter, although since the $1.05 bottom was so congested at the $1.25 range mebbe not this time.
Now, it's trading at $1.55 or so today and if it rises it will face resistance at $2.25 (+45%) and $4.00 (+158%), which look pretty good, except I think it's got the $1.00 downside (and maybe more--funny thing, I've had stocks go from $1.50 to $0.11 on me!!), so in these risk-reward situations I'd like to get in close to the bottom. $2.25 gives you a 92% return on a $1.17 purchase, and $4 gives you a 242% return, and given its biz, the throttling down of capex by its clients, then maybe you need to drive a tougher bargain with the market to justify owning this name in this sector.
You buy it today and you're paying 26 cents for every dollar of book; maybe $1.17 (20 cents) is a better valuation.
Since I went through this exercise, I might just lob in a $1.16 bid myself (the extra penny is so as to NOT frontrun you, amigo). As always, JMVVHO.
Kb |
