Byhi, i think this is good time to review my decisions of 1999 and give cause why i am not changing as i did then.
In review, i was trading buy-side very very heavily, from October 1998 to October 1999, at which point i went vocally bearish and took a big hit short side as we approached December. I was confronted head on, do i go to retrieve the loss by stubbornly staying short and go buy-side.
As we entered December i went to heavy buy-side only.
And between that time and when i dumped all on 4/7/2000 i retrieved my loss and went well beyond into a heavy profit ---.
During that time i was being extremely sarcastic about the Bull BS, but riding it anyway.
So why do i NOT go long now????
In brief, very brief. Come December i realized Y2k not only was going to be a complete fizzle(and that alone would set off buying) but also Greenspan had flooded the market with liquidity and that , because of Y2k the 4th Quarter earnings, the tech earnings would be one time ONLY blow-out great(and would set a benchmark that will NEVER be approached again) . With all this factored i realized we were in a perfect set-up for a market historic level wild frenzy.
I do NOT see any parallels now to the fall/winter of 1999 and now.But if, on the long shot chance this builds into a early 2000 like mania pushing well into March, it will set up , and i MEAN this, a sell-off so catastrophic the losses incurred by the those sucked in and caught in it would crush our economy for at least a decade. i say to those that think it is "patriotic" to talk talk the market up and to consume consume(and worry not about debt building) is also "patriotic", those ilk i believe are propagandizing a formula for a deep and long disaster.
There is much more--but that is the nutshell:) Max |
