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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.92

+0.1%

4:00 PM EST

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To: zonder who wrote (7246)	11/28/2002 8:58:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95499

Hi Zonder, Often times we expect the industry leaders to know what's next.This bewilders most - but the reality is they themselves don't know when the order comes in. Look at the crosscurrents fron Taiwan Semi vs United.It is just hard to say. What I believe is key and thusly why valuations seem sometimes to jump ahead and discount the future is managements ability to make the hard decisions and right size the company for any and all conditions. No one like to make the ugly call. Only the great leaders do and they provide confidence to a shakey investor class that this company given any circumstance WILL be profitable. As a worst case adjustment the truly "committed to profitability" have all made cuts in September/October time period. Accordingly valuations have responded favorably in light of worst case predictions. Cohu,SBSE,NVLS and many more have benefitted from this bewildering set of circumstances. All of a sudden we're discounting the future - it is because we've gained confidence in management's leadership. No doubt the first step in a soon to be announced turnaround.gg Bob

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