Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 177.55

+0.5%

9:48 AM EST

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To: engineer who wrote (125736)	11/28/2002 9:57:46 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (4) of 152472

Sorry Engineer, but I seem to recall that Qualcomm's license agreements are for a 7 year term. We can expect that ones in force 15 years from now will have been renegotiated at least 3 times. Sure, they may still have a "use one, pay for all" philosophy by then. But are you absolutely sure that the answer to the question "how much" won't change? Careful now. Anyone with two neurons to rub together knows it's much harder to extract revenue from patents that have expired than it is from those still enforceable. We all know the current license agreements are anchored by a handful of very broad and very fundamental patents covering CDMA/ASIC technology. When two parties sit down at the patent-cross-licensing table it's a giant game of "these three here are worth as much as those five there" as both sides go through their stack of hundreds of patents. When the dust settles the balance of negotiating power shifts to the side holding unmatched patents. Today, Qualcomm emerges as an undisputed winner because of a handful of matchless patents. The majority of which expire in the next few years. More than that however, the patents that will have any value at all 15 years from now haven't been filed yet!!! To be so confident that Qualcomm will own the most essential IP to whatever wireless standard exists out then is... well... optimistic. To be kind. And to presume the outcome after three rounds of patent poker when the deck has yet to be shuffled for the last game... well, that's taking one gigantic leap of faith. I'm not that optimistic. John

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