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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.92

+0.1%

Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: zonder who wrote (7283)	11/28/2002 12:01:33 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95501

No, over the years - the cycle turn comes before any growth is foreseeable. It is an anticipatory almost intuitive kind of thing. We're all trying to catch the bottom.That's where the big money is made - it is afterall where there is relatively more risk. That's of course an oxymoron - the least risk is when prices are closest to book values. P.E.'s in the troughs of cycles are meaningless.This sector is famous for its cyclicality.That perhaps is what I like about it the most. Famed for violent cycles -they also are of a high frequency - that is if you can be patient for 2-3 years you can be right again.Perhaps because of the excessive blowoff distribution in 2000 - this cycle will be longer and somewhat anemic relative to past cycles. One thing that has been constant since I've been tracking the SCE sector (since 85) - the turn is not foreseen - the news certainly doesn't give one an edge. My best rule of value and safety is try to determine a book value and/or cash value.Only invest in companies with niche leadership and bullet proof balance sheets - they will be around to thrive again. Its not hard to do,but one must be persistent and above all PATIENT. This is a good group mostly positive/optimistic (of which I 've been labeled the worst).They study and report all news - good and bad.This seems to allow time to pass and thusly the patient part is more palletable. See how easy it is.gg Bob

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