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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (61150)	11/29/2002 9:56:37 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Hi Bill, Nope no farm betting for me either. My end of year bonus will trim my margin to all but bullet proof. You are a historian of markets - I have been struck with the similarity of this market and the 97-98 bottom. 97 had a failed Rally which resulted in a double bottom in 98. 01 had a failed Rally after 9/11 and double bottomed in July and October 02. If a similar recovery occurs we'll see a strong end of Novenmber - sideways Dec and a nice pop (January effect). At those lofty levels we'll rethink our excuberance and back and fill into March's prewarnings period. Then if our recovery is to be - we'll come with sequential earnings increases and bigger backlog - which will enable a forward vision for the first time in 3 years. AHHHH Confidence - it may well be a eery replay of the 4 year cycle. The Naz bottomed in 1998 on Oct 18 - The NAZ bottomed in 02 on Oct 16th. Pretty close to a 4 year cycle. Any thoughts??? Bob

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