AUGIE, JEFF L.: I agree with Augie for the most part. This is what I expect:
(1) Some more upside into early December perhaps to COMP 1500-1550 (upper BB should be pierced)
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pc20!d20,2!f]&pref=G
(2) 10% downside into Dec 20 as QQQ Max Pain is still at 25-26
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclynay[db][pc20!f]&pref=G
(3) More upside to COMP 1600+ into Jan 2003 till we get BPCOMPQ 55 or so:
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pc20!f][J8524180,Y]&pref=G
(4) Once we hit COMP 1600+ and BPCOMPQ 55, the fate of this rally should be decided: either it's another bear rally and we go down to new lower lows (COMP 1000 or lower) or it's not and we retrace 50% and go higher afterwards; I expect the bear rally conjecture to win out
(5) I don't like these VIX and VXN charts as I don't think they bottomed yet:
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pd20,2!c20!f]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclynay[df][pd20,2!c20!f]&pref=G
(6) I also don't like this equity P/C ratio 21 dma chart; again no bottom yet:
vtoreport.com
So, in summary, I see upside for some more weeks till BPCOMPQ and other indicators hit very overbought levels but I also see that this upside will give us the top before new lows (Zeev and Jeff both seem to lean this way as well as far as I can tell).
I would appreciate any analytically supported opposing viewpoints. |
