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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (14598)	11/30/2002 12:09:55 PM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (3) of 57110

Hey, I wanted to get back to this VIX chart. I been looking(and thinking) about it for a while. I swiped this chart from John Madarasz on the CFZ ewave thread(#reply-18282769) boomspeed.com My current thinking is, if we're going to mimic the '98 pattern to a degree, we are currnetly at about the beginning of Nov '98 when the VIX took it's first dip to the mid 20s. it bounced back for a couple weeks to 30 before tracking back down. SO, on that notion, I would expect the VIX to move back up to the mid/upper 30s(say 38ish) before another pull back. Whether it does come back down(or even bounces up), as in '98 remains to be seen. One point of concern I have is that all through '99 the VIX remained relatively contained while the markets continued to go ballistic. P.S> I don't know yet what to make of the VIX/comp relationship during '00, but there is plenty of time yet if I'm going to continue to draw parallels to '98/'99. And that's about it for my saturday morning market thoughts. Electrician finally made it here SO I have to shut 'er down for a while. reference post #reply-18283019

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