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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands
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To: AugustWest who wrote (14700)11/30/2002 7:44:21 PM
From: PuddleGlum  Read Replies (1) of 57110
 
We're looking at the same stuff, Auggie. True, the VIX was contained for most of 1999, but look at relative values instead of or in addition to absolute values. Larry Dudash applies Williams%R (or something equivalent) to VIX, and I use this same idea to some advantage.

What bothers me is what I see in the VIX before '97. It seems far less consistent about marking significant tops and bottoms. Does the VIX just "not work" during certain phases of the market?

It looks to me like we could continue up to 1550-1575 on the Naz before heading down again. That's about where I'll have to draw the line on my recent bear call. A close over 1575 and I will probably have to throw out whatever bearishness I have left. On the downside I can see 1350 and 1250 as support levels. I don't think we go lower than 1250.

Other musings.... Larry D. seems to think that the July lows marked a significant bottom. True, the market went lower in Sept. and Oct., but the more I look the more I think that there is something more substantial to that bottom than meets the eye.

The economy is still ill, but I'm looking for hidden positives. It could well be that 6 months from now we look back and wonder why we didn't see the good news right before our eyes. I realize, thought, that when friends and neighbors are getting pink slips it can make things look mighty bleak.
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