P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: Big Dog who wrote (17503)	12/1/2002 1:11:28 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (10) of 30712

thanks dog...hope you had a nice thanksgiving also.... the problem is....the thread lost "focus"..... i always said all along this isn't a bear thread but a reality thread....i set strict guidelines for the retrace to follow....and if they were broken at anytime the retrace was off..... from may nasdaq of 1759 to july bottom of 1192 there was only 4000 posts here.....most missed that big down.....just about every post was pure t/a focus..... at the july bottom....we had the next run topping around 1400.....it did at 1427......the next leg was to start for an october bottom of 1000 area.... all of a sudden....the thread got popular......but started to slowly lose focus..... the calls here on the way down to 1000 in sept were dead on......as we got into october.....i saw a pattern develop that i called the geo flat.......most had that as a high before a drop to 1000 starting on the 10th..... but.....and this is where the thread really started to lose focus on the t/a and everything i set up in the guidelines of the retrace..... i had the 10th as a low with a ramp back over 1200 for an options high the following week..... but....we needed a high that week of under 1250 for the retrace to stay true.....i said that a high of 1250-1300 would put the retrace at serious risk....... well...we had the INTC dump....but the IBM pump sent this to a higher high that week..... right then and there the warning was given that the backwards chart was in serious trouble and if that 1347 was broken.....the backwards retrace was toast.... so everybody should have been long from the 10th and thinking short off an options week high and get the heck out if 1347 broke..... so the worst pain shorts here should have felt was from around 1280 nasdaq to 1347.... after that options high the market was going up and down for days with a few hits around 1279 and 1340's....folks had plenty of time to bail shorts..... 1347 broke....AV started.....the backwards chart was toast......a 7 t-q showed up that i compared to april 2001 and oct 2001....any shorts just looking at charts of april 2001 and oct 2001 with the runs they showed should have been cautious right there along with the break of the retrace backwards chart.... but the thread lost focus on the guidelines set...the post which numbered 4000 in july tripled in less time than it took to get to 4000.... it became a bear thread.....i ditched my shorts and started playing the flying crap that was going up 2-4 fold from early november on.... then the ultimate break....1459.....toasted....the backwards chart was toasted and called that in late october....those that ignored that paid the price....those that ignore the big picture break of 1459 could get wiped out like longs who ignored the d-blows and retrace earlier this year..... its a whole new ballgame.... something major happened to stop that 29-32 path early.....and it was said here that if it stopped before the final washout......well....the other time that happened was japan..... i set up a nikki comparison just in case......and when i look at it.......and since i now have to make a new plan....i have to look at what could be the worst case upside for shorts here.....and i look back at this years chart and see two unfilled gaps on the way down at 1779-1796....and 1899 -1929.... what the hell could make us go that high...only thing i can think of would be...the fed is on a money printing rampage...and thats all it would take.... at this early stage of making a new plan....i have to look at a few things that could confirm that type off bubble upside..... one is the fed of course..... another is that crap stocks normally only run like this if a bubble type top is the end result.... how about gold....it needs to tank big....well....just a quick glance at weekly gold charts i see "full sto d-blows".....the type that toasted nasdaq from march to october..... i have a few others that need more time to confirm....... the downside targets are all still the same from the original retrace plus we have all those gaps down there....so at least i don't need to make a new downside plan..... one other note....after comparing the t-q high readings like i did from the april and oct 2001 periods.....the next high t-q needs to be watched close as it should signal the end to this run......it will take "two" high readings to confirm....the first will be the warning.....the last will be the short and hold reading for a major down move..... also......like i said many times on the way down..... bear trend.....ups are short and sweet with gaps before longer down moves.....just look at a chart from 1759 to 1192....and then 1427 to 1108 bull trends.....downs are short and sweet before longer up moves....look at the current chart....if that pattern continues.....we just get slight downs followed by more new highs just like we got more new lows in the downtrend....so i just watch that type pattern also along with AV to confirm....simple....d-blows confirmed the down all along when most thought i was just following the retrace.....they were wrong.....everything i posted since may was confirm with other t/a.....just like the up we are having was confirmed with AV and ignored by most here.... anyway.....i learned long ago that folks on these boards only want to hear want they want to hear by the way they are positioned....bulls only want to see the upside....bears the down......and when you try and warn of changes that could go against them....they ignore it..... i can't post on threads like that because threads like that turn to shit when they are on the wrong side...... i made this thread a pure t/a thread so folks could go with the flow and play the market...... i just realized that all i talked about since may was a waste of time......warnings and guidelines were ignored.....lots of wasted posts of complaining because they are one-sided on the wrong side......and folks t/a analysis is tainted when its based on hope because they are on the wrongside..... despite what the ankle biters say.....the calls here using pure and simple unbiased t/a where dead on from may till options week october....and even then there were a good 8 trading days between 1279-1350 to decide on not getting toasted short.....the warnings of an upside break and potential were given.... now for the first time here....folks are on the wrongside because they ignored the warnings...the t/a has turned to hope.....the thread theme has left reality and went bear.... its kinda funny......almost a good sentiment indicator.... from may to july during the biggest down part....just a few folks here and only 4000 post.....then all of a sudden just before the retrace ends as we knew it....the post triple and most who missed the big down join in just before the bottom and a big up move.....isn't that the way the real market works.....most are late to the party before the trend changes..... where were all the folks and post here from 1759 to 1192.....but by the time it gets popular here.....its near the end.... just like buying the top of a bubble...... anyway.....the least popular a thing is....the better it works.....my t/a with AV,DB, P&S is little used here unless i or just a few others mention it.....and now i see after many months of proving it in battle with accurate calls....many still don't "get it"...... and thats fine with me.....because thats why it works...its so simple.....the folks who need to over analyze everything can't see it for what it is....just like they couldn't see the backwards nasdaq chart since may and missed all that gravy downside......<GGGG> so others can mock it...change the settings on it....use it right or abuse it.....i don't care...... i'm done explaining it.......it was shown here over the months and proven and explained...... btw....NDX pierced its 200 ma.....sold off.....ramped.....i said next up for the 200 pierce was nasdaq.....nasdaq pierced its 200 ma.....folks here who learned anything should know what to watch for now.....but.....just like AV a few weeks ago....nobody is talking about it..... so i can see the thread has changed.......the original concept of t/a only is gone......now its hope....not hard cold t/a facts like before.... most daily charts on important stocks broke through major resistance points.....yet most here don't even realize the upside hurt they are feeling is on the weekly charts....i always said you better see what the weekly and monthly have to get a big picture read......if folks read the weekly charts.....folks could have seen there was plenty of upside pain in november and still theres plenty of upside potential you can't see on the daily charts...... on weekly charts...crap stocks still have huge upside potential....kinda like bubble blow off stuff of 2000 because they were so beaten down....at that time.....the big stocks had little upside left but the crap were still running 2-10 fold....... so.....because i think its crazy to buy the big caps this high....and the weekly charts show the potential up in the overall market i don't want to hold shorts overnight either just like i would not hold longs during the big dowtrend this whole year...... so since the 1347 broke and AV showed upped my game plan went to daytrade long and short only and play the crap stocks for the rest of year...... i know nothing will change trend wise for a good longer hold type play on the shortside till i see the next high t-q anyway....so.....why bother.....AV needs to roll over on the dailys still....and the weeklys overbought still need to roll and not AV before a good short and hold safe strategy can be played.....until then....its just whipsaw city for both longs and shorts..... i made it clear over the months that when a strict guideline i set breaks.....i change then also.....folks don't like it.....thats tough.....my only reason in this market is to make money and not get toasted.....for me its not about being a bull or bear.....its about being on the right side no matter what that side is.....and that means making a plan of upside and downside risk and setting parameters and sticking to it..... i came back to see folks shorting and holding into AV that i warned would toast shorts......AV is a shorts grim reaper....i couldn't have made it any clearer.....and to see the complaining and read hundreds of useless post from those who went against it while crap stocks were and still are rising 100% or more......well.....i thought this thread was better than that....... i asked if anybody wanted some here nuked to clean this thread up and get the focus back........nobody said anything....so i guess everybody is happy......

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