pvz: I'd go with (a) or (e). I see no H&S setting up
yet on the S&P monthly. There is higher volume on the right shoulder, if you want to call the line around 965 a shoulder. However, the chart is supporting a move toward negation or testing at 965, not a pattern follow-through.
I don't place much confidence in H&S patterns, but I have to pay some attention to their dramatic follow-through potential. I'd care more about the pattern on the S&P if I saw the index climbing above ~965 and testing that S/R line from above. I see the S&P pattern as a domed top. I wouldn't call the H&S negated just because 965 is taken out going the "wrong" way (up), so long as price stays below some MAs and the 9/00 falling resistance line.
I'm short SPY now, and may close that if it takes out the 965 local high. I won't be around for the test of the falling resistance line from 9/00 if that comes, as I'm now guessing it will:
stockcharts.com[r,a]mbclyiay[pc10!c20!c40!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc5!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][j8574274,y]&listNum=4
I definitely don't think "the bottom is in," although I note the number of believers increasing. My guess is an S&P below 750 by the end of next year, whether or not it pokes its head above 1000 this year. |
