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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: Jeff who wrote (17788)12/1/2002 1:30:40 PM
From: exp  Read Replies (2) of 30712
 
JEFF, excellent post and great insights. My thoughts:

(1) It's your thread so you are welcome to make any changes you desire. However, you have established yourself as a leader/"guru" at least on par with Zeev and inevitably lots of posters will be attracted to any thread you post on just like Zeev's thread got out of hand before he moved to iHub. I have noticed that many excellent posters have migrated here from other threads as time went on.

(2) IMO the parallel with the Oct 98 rally needs to be kept in mind (courtesy of Jorj):
Message 18287216
Your caution is caused by the bubble-like nature of this rally (crap stock runs) and some powerful AVs on dailies as well as DBs on weeklies (VIX, VXN, XAU). I agree. Yet, this rally may fail well before we reach 1600-1700s.

My idea is to watch for a blow-off top very soon and after that gingerly play the short side while watching if daily Stos and RSI fall below 50 or stop at 50 (and if the weekly Stos and RSI turn down). If they all fall below 50, it's probably a bear market rally but if they don't, it might Oct 98 all over again. I say probably because weekly Stos and RSI will have to fall below 50 as well to be sure that the rally does not go higher after a retrace.
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