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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: Jeff who started this subject12/1/2002 6:49:34 PM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) of 30712
 
Comparing a bull market with a bear market using COMP wkly:
stockcharts.com[g,a]whclynay[d19900101,20021201][pd20,2!f][iUp14,3,3!Ub14][J8430730,Y]&pref=G

Bull market (1990-2000) features:
(1) RSI often above 70, rarely below 50, never below 30
(2) Full Sto often above 80, rarely below 20
(3) RSI had 7 periods when it visited below 50 in 10 years
while Full Sto had 10 periods when it visited below 50 in 10 years (major bull market corrections)

Bear market (2000-2002) features:
(1) RSI never above 70, rarely above 50, often below 30
(2) Full Sto rarely above 80, often below 20
(3) RSI had 4 periods when it visited above 50 in 2.5 years
while Full Sto had 4 periods when it visited above 50 in 2.5 years (major bear market rallies)

To tell if the current rally is a bull market or a bear market rally we can apply two tests:
(1) If RSI rises above 70 it's a bull market and if RSI falls below 50 it's a bear market
(2) IF Full Sto falls to 50 and bounces up from 50 it's a bull market and if Full Sto falls below 50 it's a bear market
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