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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Don Green who wrote (3495)	12/2/2002 5:57:14 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (2) of 3536

BET THE FARM ON THE RENMINBI.... Will China re-value the renminbi? By Chi Lo 18 December 2001 One of the big issues over the next year may be a more flexible exchange rate policy in China. From an international perspective, there seems to be a case for a stronger renminbi. But will China re-value? The renminbi (CNY) has been under appreciating pressure, as seen in China's surging foreign exchange reserves, due to strong capital inflows and current account surplus. The sharp and steady decline in the CNY non-deliverable forwards reflects increasing confidence in the CNY, and hence reducing its risk premium, which fell to negative levels at some point recently (see chart). Anecdotal evidence also shows that the CNY/USD black market rate had appreciated above the official exchange rate. [snip] financeasia.com

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