ILS Proton K Failure Strands World's Largest Satcom
Aviation Week & Space Technology 12/02/02
author: Craig Covault
{Three things here" 1) Loral is scheduled to use SeaLaunch, so might jump launchers and 2) A trend to smaller sats would increase the manufacturer's capacity percentage. 3) Insurance costs continue to rise so the sats with the best reliability gain value. - Jeff Vayda}
The world's largest commercial communications spacecraft, the 11,600-lb. European Astra 1K, was left stranded in a
useless orbit last week following the failure of its ILS/Russian Proton K upper stage shortly after launch from Russia's
Baikonur Cosmodrome.
The Nov. 26 accident will have major implications for SES European satcom operations, the aerospace insurance
market and the competition between Proton and the Boeing Sea Launch programs that use the same rocket stage that
failed.
SES and Alcatel ground controllers by early Nov. 27 began using the spacecraft's liquid propulsion system to raise the
satellite to a 185-mi. circular orbit to prevent it from immediately reentering the atmosphere from the 109-mi. orbit
where the Proton stranded it. The maneuver is being done to give SES and Alcatel time to evaluate options on what to
do, said Jean-Paul Hoffmann, an SES-Global vice president.
There is no way the spacecraft can be used in a commercial geosynchronous orbit mission, but engineers are assessing
whether it could be used eventually for engineering tests in something like a highly elliptical orbit. "People are trying to
pull some good out of a perfectly desperate situation," Hoffmann said. There have been no discussions about a shuttle
retrieval mission, he said.
The SES/Alcatel spacecraft was launched at 4:04 a.m. local time on board a 2-million-lb.-thrust ILS Proton K. The
Proton's Block DM fourth stage fired properly to place the satellite into an initial 109-mi. orbit. But the stage failed to
ignite properly during the second of three planned firings an hour later as the vehicle approached the Ivory Coast in
Africa. The burn was to propel Astra into a 22,300 X 113-mi. intermediate transfer orbit, but instead stranded it at 109
mi., where it was separated from the stage.
Astra 1K was to be the single most ambitious commercial communications satellite operated to date. Planned for a
Central African orbital slot and at least 13 years of service, it was to take the place of three existing satcoms while
backing up a fourth. Standing 25 ft. tall, it was to use 10 antennas feeding 54 transponders powered by solar array
wings spanning 122 ft.
The spacecraft and launch cost are insured for just under $250 million, but the cost of the hardware is just the tip of the
iceberg on the impact of this failure.
The broader implications include:
Fewer big satcoms? The loss of Astra 1K will fuel growing concerns that "bigger is not necessarily better." SES and
Alcatel market surveys in the mid-1990s (along with those of U.S. companies) determined that by increasing the
number of transponders and consequently spacecraft size, a company could also built greater profits. That was fine for
the transponder "seller's market" of the late 1990s, but since then the trend has shifted to a "buyer's market" that's
starting to turn the economic tables against big, expensive spacecraft like Astra 1K.
Dwindling insurance. The Astra loss, fully insured, is a huge blow to the global aerospace insurance market already
facing claims during the last two years totaling hundreds of millions of dollars more than premiums. During 2001, for
example, space insurance claims totaled $830 million against just $490 million in premiums ( AW&ST May 20, p. 47).
The Astra loss and other mounting claims are worsening an insurance capacity shortfall that may make it difficult for
some projects to get affordable insurance. And with the Astra failure, space insurers were late last week in anticipatory
anguish over the planned Nov. 28 dual launch of two more heavy European satcoms on the first (and thus higher risk)
flight of the uprated version of the Ariane V with a cryogenic upper stage.
Launcher reputations. The Astra loss marks the fourth mission failure in four years caused by the Energia Block DM
upper stage, which uses a 19,000-lb.-thrust oxygen/kerosene engine--a questionable record given the commercial
stakes involved. International Launch Services had at least one customer booked on the Proton K with the DM stage,
but last week abandoned the DM altogether. All future ILS missions from Baikonur will be on the Proton M version
with the new Khrunichev Breeze M upper stage. Any ILS customer that wants off the Proton for whatever reason will
be accommodated on appropriate versions of the ILS Atlas. The Boeing Sea Launch Zenit SSL booster, however,
also uses the Block DM upper stage and has as many as nine missions booked for launch on the vehicle through 2004.
Sea Launch President Jim Maser said, "We will be monitoring the investigation as it progresses within the bounds of
export compliance." Sea Launch managers are very interested in the malfunction, but tech-transfer rules prohibit them
from interacting directly with the Russians until the investigation is completed. Information exchanges after that must be
done within the bounds of those regulations. Boeing Launch Services will facilitate a shift to the Delta III or Delta IV to
any customer wanting off the Sea Launch.
SES service impact. The 52 K u-band and two K a-band transponders on Astra 1K were eventually to replace the
services provided by three satellites launched earlier--Astra 1B, 1C and 1D. In addition, Astra 1K was to extend the
geographic coverage possible from the SES primary orbital slot at 19.2 deg. E. Long., especially into new Eastern
European markets. A third objective of the Astra 1K was to use its K a-band transponders for greater broadband
interactive services. SES will be studying its service and market situation in determining how to replace the capacity
lost.
"We extend our sincerest condolences to SES-Astra" for the failure, said ILS President Mark Albrecht. |
