>>Because you will be right, but people will anticipate that you will be right about baby bust bear market.<<
Cryptic.
>>it depends on a simple indicator: the ratio of the number of middle-aged people to the number of young adults in the population.<<
Why a ratio? The absolute number of stock buyers - "middle-aged people" above - is more important, imho. And that number, defined as people aged ~30 to ~56, is still rising and will continue to rise through the end of this decade.
>>Demographics are the most critical factor in determining long-term market trends, they say, because investment behavior largely depends on age-related patterns.<<
Yes.
>>When more people are entering middle age than retiring, for example, the market tends to rise because more people will be buying than selling....That trend is reversing, according to the model, which predicts a long decline caused by sales by baby boomers.<<
It comes down to a battle of the models - with conflicting predictions driven by how you define your demographic segments, how you set up your regression analysis. These folks see decline through 2018, others see a third leg of the great bull market through ~2009, followed by a decline to approximately current index levels by ~2023, followed by another strong bull through ~2038.
The third leg scenario requires a strong up year (30%+ on major indices, led by Nasdaq) in 2003. We shall see, Jay, one way or the other. |
