Thanks for the update, Tom. I apologize for the tardy reply. I was on vacation and out of town over the holidays.
I am concerned that our economy may be slipping into a "Japan maelstrom" where no market progress is made for many years. Why? Well, for the past couple of years, my mailbox has been flooded with 0% credit card interest rate offers for 12 months. More recently, I am being inundated with offers of 0% for 18-20 months, including no balance transfer fee. These are not good signs, and they are reminiscent of what happened in Japan. This can't continue.
I think this mild market strength may persist through early January, but I will be shorting into any significant market strength, with leverage.
I don't know how this major over-capacity is going to end, but I don't think it will be a very good scenario. I strongly believe the NDX will test its lows over the next few months, but I am being very cautious and keeping plenty of cash free.
Please keep us posted on your IW observations. Your IW's trend predictive qualities have been uncanny.
Season's greetings,
John in New Orleans
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