Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, December 2nd, 2002:
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Money Market 1.551 BILLION
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Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%))
SPX Long - NOVA 251.3 Million
SPX Short- URSA 382.9 Million
NDX Long - OTC 634.3 Million
NDX Short- ARKTOS 121.6 Million
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Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 209.3 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 278.1 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 298.6 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 216.0 Million
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Sector Funds:
XAU Precious Metals 49.9 Million
XOI Energy 17.3 Million
OSX Energy Services 24.1 Million
BKX Banking 18.0 Million
BTK Biotech 176.3 Million
RUT 2000 - MIKROS 145.3 Million
RLX Retail 38.2 Million
Telecommunications 101.4 Million
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Some interesting observations since the steamroller breakout above COMP 1426:
1)Amazingly, Rydex Money Market levels still above overbought levels even after this massive run-up. This suggests plenty of money in cash that needs to come to market as we work higher and fear of missing the next leg up sets in.
2)We have not gotten lathered up above double overbought levels in this run-up via the 5 day RSI. It has been a steady grind higher and any pullbacks have been brief and burned anyone getting out early. However, 5 week RSI levels are closing in on double overbought levels and this is a concern nearterm.
3)Today was the first day we crossed COMP 1,500 since June 20th (1,503.01)as the intraday high hit COMP 1,521.44 and closed at COMP 1,487.76 up 6. I mentioned in early November we would assault COMP 1,500 in this run-up into Thanksgiving holiday and Friday's intraday COMP 1,497 was trumped by today's action.
4)Rydex TA numbers, on balance, are still quite Bullish. OTC numbers scream Bullish and OTC/Arktos ratio suggests much upside left. However, Velocity numbers a bit frothy and Velocity/Venture ratio suggests imminent pause before we head right back up.
5)SPX crossed SPX 950 for the first time since August 27 (955.82) as todays intraday high hit SPX 954.28 only to pullback off the highs and close at SPX 934.53 down less than 2 points. My target was SPX 960 into Thanksgiving and today the SPX is bringing up the caboose.
6)Rydex TA numbers in both the Regular and Dynamic Series extremely Bullish and suggests full speed ahead. Nova/Ursa and Titan/Tempest have worked like sentiment champions in this leg up and will keep us long. Suggest much higher prices to come.
SPX rydex numbers have tilted heavily to the Bears ever since BKX stocks (C, JPM) got blown up since the 780 break on July 15/16 and beyond and then leg two down Sept 3- October 9 for the blowout under its legs. Reconstructive surgery in BKX is slowly getting healed after tearing the ACL. BKX has closed back above 780 in 7 out of the last 8 trading days after drowning underwater.
7)Froth is more than evident in telecom and internet and Russell 2000 has been on fire of late and the rydex mikros numbers getting fat.
8)A good counter-trend position set-up in here is energy and energy service stocks.
9)Now it gets tricky, as the market has plenty of upside room left in this run but the question is does it scream back up to double overbought levels first or pullback a few days and then scream higher again into the end of the year.
For the market to do my bidding for me at this juncture, I would like to see the pullback NOW. We need FEAR to permeate the bones of the weak longs and feed some mealtime confidence to the Bears to keep them short. I would like to see one hard day down and another chop and slop session 1 up 1 down with the one hard day down. If this set-up materializes and we hit a low around Weds or Thurs this week, I would like to see COMP 1426 maintained, or if it is broken, only 1 close below this level and the next consecutive close right back above and then we are off to the races.
Best Regards, J.T. |
