Hi,
Monthly comment
NASDAQ
Looks like the entire move from the October low has topped with the exhaustion move yesterday morning.
Important 1487 resistance (38.1% fib to the entire move from Jan 2001) held, with the index trying to break it for three days in a row but always closed below that number.
Said move from the low could be the entire correction, but more likely is only the 1st leg out of two legs up.
Timing is a bit off here, seasonality would suggest the high for the correction should arrive in January, and if we start moving down for two weeks from here this leaves only one month for the second leg up, which is marginally enough (fib 61.8% from the 1st leg).
So road map from here:
Two weeks down to 1345 area (1st support) or lower, then next leg up to mid\end Jan, then a new bear leg down.
ST trend - down
IT trend - up
LT trend - down
S&P
I have more problems seeing a new high (even marginal) on the S&P in January, because the BKX is overextended and it has yet to resolve the giant 4 years ED pattern. IMO this is the next sector to be hit and the big bear trend in the S&P will not be over till we see the BKX at 450 or lower.http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=17370187
Gold
Very interesting candlestick pattern in the HUI - we had 7 (seven!) small bodies in a row, and a nice white candle today (so far).
Usualy 3 small bodies in a row and a move the other way is enough for trend change.
Also the futures had a false break yesterday below the 317.5 support but closed above it.
That leaves me with the conclusion that the ST trend in Gold is now UP.
ST trend - reversed to up
IT trend - unknown
LT trend - UP
ATG
P.S.
A reminder that there's no such thing as random walk, and a self-shoulder-patting note:
Here's the guy that nailed both the 2002 S&P top
Message 17211029
>S&P
1152-55 area held, 1180 still the target area. That could be the best shorting opportunity of this year, or just a ST top. By the look of the Naz I take the former.>
And Naz bottom (off by a week)
Message 18058512
And later that week had it right
Message 18078621
with a two months target that was just met
siliconinvestor.com
ATG |
