Hi KLP; Re: "your guess is as good as anyone's"
That's right. The world is an inherently unknowable place and (perhaps democratically) we have no clue as to what the truth is. Especially with regard to military, diplomatic and political things that are too complicated for man to understand. That anyone ever predicts anything correctly is due only to luck. But then again, maybe there are people out there that are luckier than others, that's all. And the stock market, it's just a random walk, LOL.
Qn: How tough is Afghanistan?
Conventional wisdom (guess): Afghanistan chewed up the British and the Russians, and it will chew up the Americans too. (See #reply-16361105 also, even Rumsfeld had to deny that Afghanistan was a "quagmire" as late as October 3, 2001 #reply-16572257 )
Right wing wisdom (guess): Nuclear weapons could be needed in Afghanistan.
Bilow, September 15, 2001
If we go to Afghanistan or Iraq, we will kick their butts.
...
This is not at all a "fair" fight. Don't worry about it. #reply-16357532
Britain fought the Afghanistanis with the same weapons (rifles) that the Afghanistanis defended themselves with. Britain had no air support, so they were unable to tell where the Afghanis were. In addition, Britain pissed off the locals.
...
The Russian situation is different, but similar. Russia went in against the Afghanistanis and we supplied them with sophisticated antiaircraft weapons. That eliminated the Russian air control advantage. Oh, and they really pissed off the locals, with atrocities similar to the one quoted above. The result was similar to the problems that the British had.
...
I wouldn't worry too much about Afghanistan. Like I said, all indications are that it will not be bloody at all. It is possible that you will see a happy mob scene similar to the one when US troops rolled into Kuwait. The Taliban has been running the country into the ground, and there's a lot of indications that they're tired of it. We'll probably let the Muslim countries take care of overseeing elections and replacing the Taliban with something democratic. Heck, Turkey is a Moslem country, and they've been in NATO for decades. You could be booking a vacation in Kabul summer after next. #reply-16357787
Qn: Are terrorists sending anthrax all over the world?
Conventional wisdom (guess): Yes, now it's reported in Kenya. ( #reply-16527570 )
Bilow, October 19, 2001
Re Kenya and Anthrax. My (unschooled) opinion: The Anthrax scare is world wide. With 5 billion people looking for Anthrax in the mail, there's bound to be some false positives somewhere. It just doesn't make much sense, so it's unlikely to be true. #reply-16527570
Qn: Will there be war between India and Pakistan?
Conventional wisdom (guess): India will defeat Pakistan quickly in war to start in two weeks #reply-17564067
Bilow, June 6, 2002
My guess is that there's not going to be significant fighting. #reply-17564113
Qn: Will there be war between the US and Iraq?
Conventional wisdom (guess): In late 2001, it was considered to be inevitable, by early 2002 it was doubtful, then in mid 2002 it became inevitable again, now it's doubtful again.
Bilow, January 17, 2002
You may as well hope for us to attack North Korea or China. It just ain't gonna happen, except possibly for some air sorties, but those have been going on for years. #reply-16922393
Qn: Is the US secretly preparing for a war with Iraq?
Conventional wisdom (guess): Yes! So many weapons are being shipped to the Middle East that there is a shortage of containers (see #reply-17718940, LOL!) The war starts in late September, with the Jordanian exercises. (See #reply-17966001 ) The war starts in October with the Kuwaiti exercises. (See #reply-18076097 ) The war has already started with the 100 plane attack on Iraq. (See #reply-17963555 ) SeaLift has been activated, that's 90 ships moving weapons to Iraq. (See #reply-18002585 also #reply-17955364 ) The US is collecting up carriers in the Persian Gulf and the war will start in December. (See #reply-18138649 #reply-18070300 )
Bilow, July 11, 2002
Well. If that's true [that the US military is using lots of containers for shipping munitions], I wonder when we'll see the financial results. A quick search of the container shipping web sites found no news. The financial transportation results for 1Q02 are already in: ... #reply-17720832
Bilow, August 12, 2002
This is not necessarily a big deal. For example: AMMAN, Jordan, April 5, 2000 -- The U.S. military exercise program with Jordan will grow, said Defense Secretary William S. Cohen, adding bilateral and multilateral military exercises would make the Middle East a more stable place.
...
Re: "We've got confirmation that the Russians are engaged in a massive war game exercise in the Caspian sea." This means nothing at all. It's a great time of the year to have war games in the Caspian, I'd bet. I won't even bother to look for links. #reply-17869021
Bilow, August 26, 2002
These exercises (which happen every 6 months or so and have been going on since 1996) are over in a few months. After they're over, and there still is no war with Iraq, are you going to admit that you were wrong, or are you just going to retreat to predicting war being the cover for the next month's exercises like you did back when you were wrong, wrong, wrong about the war starting in February or May [2002]? #reply-17920612
Bilow, September 5, 2002
This is hilarious. You're posting about the movement of a single ship worth of armaments. ... Let's look at what the US military says about logistics associated with the Gulf War and compare them to the above: ... #reply-17958507
Bilow, September 6, 2002
To put this into perspective, note that there were 7,000 sorties flown in just the first 4 days of the Gulf War (i.e. Jan 16-19th): ... In other words, the press isn't making it [100 plane raid] into a big deal because it wasn't one. #reply-17962706
Bilow, October 3, 2002
The Navy switches which aircraft carriers are deployed every six months. So the only way that they could avoid sending a signal to you that a war was about to start would be if they kept them all in US ports, LOL. US carriers have been in the Persian Gulf since 1990. They get relieved every six months. This is ancient news from before the WTC attack, but back then you never noticed that it was going on. It's been going on for 10 years, and it sure as hell doesn't mean that a war is about to start. #reply-18070683
Bilow, November 5, 2002
I know that you don't appreciate my commentary, but what I've done here is provide you with a template that allows you to compare the current [carrier] deployment with the preparations that went into the last Gulf War. If you look at the evidence I've provided you, you will realize that the commentators employed by the newspapers are [insert phrase for "not competent" here]. #reply-18198925
Qn: Will Saddam cooperate with inspectors? Does he have WMDs?
Conventional wisdom (guess): Iraq is loaded with WMDs. The inspectors will find evidence of them within days. He didn't learn anything from the Kuwait liberation war. He won't agree to inspections. Saddam would never let inspectors into his palaces.
Bilow, September 16, 2002
My prediction for the likely course of history: (a) Iraq eventually gets a clean bill of WMD from the inspectors. #reply-17998636
Bilow, October 10, 2002
The rumors I'm seeing in the Arab press are that Saddam has cut a deal with the UN allowing essentially unfettered access to anywhere. ... #reply-18100353
Bilow, November 8, 2002
The game is over, Saddam won. Bush will redefine "regime change" to include a sadistically oppressive regime that "changed" in that it got rid of WMDs that were of no earthly use to it. #reply-18214558
Saddam, Noember 15, 2002
Question: What were the lessons learned? [from the Gulf War]
Politics are science, and in any science there are experiments. The politician is an eternal student, and always benefits from personal experience, or the experience of other people. We believe in the importance of public opinion and its effects, and learn from our experiences. Making mistakes and correcting them are a human act that could be improved. No one among us is infallible, and Allah alone is perfect. #reply-18236861
-- Carl |
