The short answer is, up to seven new nations in the intermediate term, some of questionable viability.
The longer answer.....
JMO, but I think all bets will be off, that the whole arrangement will be reviewed in the harsh light of day with little sentiment. Not that Quebec leaving would be that traumatic -- we've had 20 years to get used to the idea, and certainly where I live only a fifth of the population would really give a, er, darn. In the immediate term, sure, the ROC would stay together, but the centrifugal forces, particularly in the west, would become more noticeable. It would take incredible good will and finesse to re-tool our political system to make a viable country. You'd have a lower House with 225 seats, 103 of which from Ontario. A whole bunch of wealth in Alberta, with probably less political influence.
So, two scenarios. The whole thing tries to carry on with the status quo. The outcome is the same whether Quebec goes or not. If we try to run Canada they way the Liberals have been doing it for the last generation, Canada has no future with or without Quebec. In relative terms the U.S. is being managed better. Canada in 1945 was like Portugal in 1700. Canada today is like Portugal in 1980. The only thing that 'saved' Portugal was the fact that Spain was a basket-case too. Without bold, effective leadership, Canada will be absorbed by the U.S., and the U.S. will decide in how many lumps it's done.
In the other scenario, we find skilled, talented and smart leaders to replace the present politburo. Then it depends where they are. If they're in the west only, the there's another new nation, pronto. Alberta will go for sure, because in the harsh light of day Alberta gets far too little from Confederation to bother with it. A combined Alberta and B.C., with good leadership, would be a dynamite country, and probably strong enough to withstand pressure from the south. Then the question becomes, does Ontario want to try to carry six have-not provinces.
OTOH, you might get a real federalist messiah to lead the ROC. If you implemented proper reforms before all the sentiment dissipated, you could keep the whole thing together.
Let me be clear here. Quebec is really irrelevant to the question. With or without Quebec, there is no reason that Canada cannot genuinely be the best country in the world, with a standard of living higher than that of the U.S. It is inept, corrupt leadership, men of microscopically small vision tied to old, discredited methods and objectives, that not only prevents Canada from attaining her potential, but in fact actively undermines her foundations. |
