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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (15513)12/5/2002 12:55:00 PM
From: tommycanuck  Read Replies (2) of 206182
 
Just a short note with my view from the Canadian front. In my opinion there has been a radical shift in the environment that the service companies operate in. Most important is the wave of energy trusts that have come about in the last 2 or 3 years. The middle tier of operators in Canada has been wiped out over that time period either through consolidation or conversion to the trusts. What we are left with is a smaller oil patch at the moment,from the service company view point, in that the trusts do not work the assets in the same manner as they did before...they simply look for more assets to purchase. The cheap assets in sizeable blocks are gone and IMO they must now start to chase more expensive assets or wait for the rationalization of the larger companies such as Conoco, Devon,Burlington etc. The end result is we developed a service sector that has capacity to spare in a tighter operating environment despite the high prices for oil and NG. Simply put we do not have the infrastructure from the producers side to deploy fully the assets of the service sector. We are seeing companies pull out of Canada (Western Geco) and many long standing smaller companies struggle. At a minimum there will not be the price elasticity that we saw before and I think that the results posted during the last upcycle will be difficult to match. And I think that perceived price weakness of the trusts is reflecting the difficulty in obtaining proper assets for the right price. The market is certainly there but the ability to supply is not. Just my thoughts...have enjoyed the way the thread has developed over the past year.

Regards

TC
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