. . . . Deflation, Consumer Goods Glut & Recovery Plan . . . .
Some thoughts on the economy that may lie ahead. . . as I peer into a frosty morning. The forecast calls for a long winter.
Watch out for a sharp drop in consumer prices. . . deflation over then next 6-12 months. As I've said several times now, the way things are headed, I believe we are in for a round of deflation not seen since the 30's. I am talking about stores slashing prices to 50% off with no takers. . . because other stores are slashing to 75%.
I believe we will also see a glut in consumer goods. Watch inventory figures move up. . . as prices drop. But if the American consumer is disinterested in purchasing these goods, then they remain on the shelves and in the warehouses. This results in a flood of cancelled wholesale orders . . . which in turn causes layoffs in the manufacturing sector. I also believe we have seen the peak to the Real Estate markets for a good time to come.
Counter action? Well, the best one is hold a MOAGS. That is, Mother of all garage sales. Get rid of absolutely everything you are not totally attached to. . . .maybe sell the garage, too. I believe your foresight will be rewarded when you buy the latest upgraded better model at a fraction of the price.
Precious metals markets generally move south during deflation, so there is no play there. Hyper-inflation is when the metals markets really shine, but we won't be seeing that any time soon, in my opinion. . . . there is simply too much competition, too many consumer goods flooding the American markets from the Pacific rim. . . and with the information available via the internet there is very little reason to buy anything at the full retail price ever again. Little by little, more American consumers are catching on to this fact.
As for stocks, I would watch for retailers like Federated or Target to pull way back and possibly fail. Wal-Mart will likely do fine since they have an incredible team of buyers who make certain that they are paying the absolute lowest price on earth for their goods. But by next September. . Best Buy, Office Depot and the like may have to resort to offering so many incentives to keep up cashflow that their profits go down the tubes.
I like Ebay, despite what the anal-ysts said this week about prices moving higher than retail stores. . . they are merely trying to sway the market for whichever reason serves their own purpose. I believe that Ebay is the perfect outlet for smart people to dump their garbage, creating a treasure for another man. . . . though this will change somewhat, as sellers begin to outnumber buyers (contrary to the latest analyst opinions). Love their purchase of PayPal, too.
Watch for a major grocery retailer to go BK. . . somebody big like Albertsons. Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Freds, and similar low end retailers will likely hold up just fine. Auto makers may suffer by the end of next year. . . IMO, we are likely see $2000 to $5000 rebates (not a misprint) on top of zero percent interest and whatever other incentives could stimulate buying a new car at what is perceived to be an already outrageous retail price. Good times for auto mechanics. Look for even more consolidation in auto mfg sector.
Banks will likely undergo the biggest changes. . . consolidating to remain strong. Watch for a major bank, such as Citibank or Wells Fargo to fail as consumers have an increasingly difficult time paying high interest credit card debt. . . .especially without jobs.
I believe we are looking at double digit unemployment at least one month during 2003. Fortunately for those playing the stock market full time, the bulk of the declines of the market should cease during the first quarter of 2003, IMO. However, it will leave us with a flat market. . . no where near the sort of volatility enjoyed during the closing years of the last millenium.
If I were an owner of a manufacturing firm (I only play one on TV), I would be looking to sell the company and sit out for a while. . . . .then look to buy up another more efficient company at pennies on the dollar during the worst of what is to come.
Bottom line. . . for those who skip to the bottom. . . I believe we are headed into a sort of recessionary period marked by tight consumer wallets, bargains galore, no jobs, an exorbetant number of scams, bankruptcies like we haven't seen since the early 90's . . perhaps worse. . . bank failures, big business layoffs and ultimate failures . . . and the toughest job market any worker still alive can remember.
I do not believe this will be an unrecoverable situation. Americans are resourceful, resilient and resolute. Our productivity is exemplary. Our ingenuity is second to none.
The road to recovery may be long and winding. I believe that America needs to think in terms of "franchising capitalism" to a designated region within impoverished nations. . . a sort of Enterprise Zone, if you will. Think of it as planting the seeds to capitalism. I further believe that it is through this effort that America will not only survive the tough economic times which lie ahead, but will come out on the other side economically stronger than any time in the past half-century. . . a true global leader. . . setting examples within countries willing to accept the American way-of-life.
If I were President Bush, I would make Putin an offer he could not refuse. I would appoint a team of our finest industrialists to "capitalize" and "synergize" St. Petersburg. . . not to turn it into Las Vegas or Disneyland. . . . but rather Columbus, Ohio. . . to enhance this culturally rich city by injecting a dose of American manufacturing, warehousing, communications, information, transportation, utilities, management, productivity, work ethic and style. . . .to make it the shining gem of the Russian republic.
There are more people there than here. So potentially, there is another entire US Economy sitting there like a diamond in the rough. . . .a sleeping giant.
Anyway, so much for the bottom line. It is my opinion, that there is no way to come out of this economically unscathed. So why not just bite the bullet and make a plan of recovery proportionate to the decline. The whole world is watching. Let us be the leaders they know us to be and show the world that when America looks its worst is when it grows the most and shines the brightest.
Rande Is |
