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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: AC Flyer who wrote (25866)12/7/2002 4:28:21 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hi AC, nice to see you around.

Re your points, they add nuances to the situation.

1. Structural inability to deal with non-performing debt.
Yeah, it's my concern also.

2. Conformity-driven business culture with resulting low propensity to innovate.
Is that the reason manufacturing is going down the drain in US?

3. Low birth rate with corresponding demographic skew towards retiree segment.
4. Xenophobia and zero immigration.

3 is a fact in a lot of countries and definitely in Germany. It is/can be mitigated by immigration, which brings up other problems. For instance the melting pot turning out chili con carne. btw, there's the plan to let Turkey join EU. In this case, there should be some hope for Mexico to join US in, say, 2015?

Next five years - I dont think we need to wait for any new technology. It's the new applications of existing (dark bandwith etc).and btw, I still think, productivity is a variable one could/should dispense with. I guess I could quote Mark Twain as saying "There's lies, damn lies and productivity"

Re long-term low rates ... It smacks a little of "new economy" idea, surviving its debacle in some new form. As if the working point of the world economy in some multidimensional phase space relocated (like the shift in the magnetic pole) to somewhere else. Where everybody gets money cheap and investing is no risk at all. Nah... The pendulum keeps swinging.

RegZ

dj
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