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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15731)12/7/2002 2:56:08 PM
From: tuck  Read Replies (1) of 57110
 
I would be wary of BA given the airlines' implosion, but this is not my field.

More in my field is a possible trading op Monday. To whit, an analyst made a questionable "reduce" call on very slender anecdotal evidence regarding an important clinical trial being conducted by Isis (ISIS). The company issued a statement to the effect that there was no way the outcome of the trial could be predicted by an oncologist or two, as it was carefully designed to prevent that, given that the method of administration of the drug makes it obvious to individual doctors and patients if they are getting the drug or not (i.e. a blind, but not double blind, trial). The design involved over a hundred sites, and over 600 patients, and about a 100 doctors. Thus I tend to agree with company's position. After the statement was issued, the stock recouped a small amount of its hefty loss after hours.

The analyst has a 50% chance of being right, IMO, and given the stock's punishment, the risk/reward should favor the long side. Do your own DD, but whatever one's opinion, expect trading to be heavy and volatile.

Cheers, Tuck
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