re: Zhou Huan, chairman of Datang, said TD-SCDMA...
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In my view, Dantang's posture is of little concern to Q.
In my view, Dantang has no leverage - because they're unable to develop TDsCDMA internally. Their only hope for standard and ASIC development hinges on outside vendors like NOK, TI and others who are bound to Q agreements and/or subject to US/European/Japanese copyright standards and enforcement. Unless Dantang and ZTE and Huawei can do it on their own, Q can cut them off. I can't see a way around that. And to MII's eternal frustration, they're years away from possessing the requisite skills.
I don't see that Dantang has a card to play, and I wonder if that may be Q's view. I don't think Q has any need to deal with Dantang - other than to politely state the riot act.
From what I've read, TDsCDMA (or UTRA-TDD) is not a candidate to become a stand-alone solution for macro cell mobile data. In that sense, I don't think a China carrier can pragmatically choose TDsCDMA for its primary 3G mobile network. TDsCDMA may well have a role with micro/pico cell data applications and personalized services (dense urban areas with concentrated data demands, private corporate connectivity) - though it may also be limited to fixed service. In that light, I see the MII spectrum allocation for TDsCDMA as a symbolic, painless, cost-free show of support, easily reversed. And UTRA-TDD will be the TDD standard of choice for 3GSM vendors elsewhere for unpaired spectrum and applications noted above.
Indeed, 3GSM vendors will never market TDsCDMA for use outside China... UTRA-TDD development and implementation is already planned (provided they first succeed with FDD UMTSwCDMA). LOL!
I think I'm dead on target that Q is MII's only opportunity to globally export TDsCDMA. Only Q knows if it's worth the hassle and potential rewards.
Dantang recently tossed out the figure of $2B needed to commercialize TDsCDMA. They've a long way to go. Dantang's Zhou has a large mouth and is making the most of his moment, but MII isn't reinforcing his extreme position. MII's comments have often implied an understanding of TDsCDMA's limitations, and that its use would be accessory and specific - which runs quite contrary to Zhou's inflated rhetoric. Indeed, MII has stated that carriers will choose for themselves, though this also strains credulity. |
