Hi BigBull; The one thing that inspections can find but cannot destroy is the humans who've been working on WMDs. As soon as inspections are stopped Iraq will go right back to developing the things. But while sanctions may be lifted even as soon as towards the end of 2003, inspections will continue for years, or until Saddam falls.
The other possibility is that those Iraqi scientists will get jobs working on WMDs for other countries, probably other Arab countries. I'm guessing that this has already happened, though I don't remember seeing it mentioned in the press.
History has repeatedly shown that the humans are far more important, in terms of technology, than the equipment. Germany and Japan had their factories bombed to crumbs and their economies destroyed, but were back on their feet in a few years. The USSR stole huge numbers of factories and equipment from East Germany, but it never did them much good.
There is also this incident from the War of 1812, where a few men walked into the wilderness, and in a few months, built a shipyard and launched several more or less cutting edge warships:
"We have met the enemy and they are ours: two ships, two brigs, one schooner, and one sloop."
brigniagara.org
-- Carl
P.S. Two posts back I said (or meant to say) that the lack of merchant marine would not seriously reduce the ability of the US to defeat Iraq in a war. But what I should have added was that nevertheless, the logistics required to fight a war would be extremely noticeable (far above the level seen so far), and has not yet started. Right now there are only a couple ROROs activated, and the news reports have been unclear on how many voyages they've made or are going to make. A real war would see close to 100 ships running full time, along with pleas for retired merchant mariners to come back to work. |
